Me again. This upcoming Oscar ceremony looks to be a mix of dead-certs and exciting/worrying unpredictabilities, so I'll do what every other critic is doing and try and predict where each gong will (and should) go. Well, almost every gong. I don't really give a shit about Best Documentary Short. Sorry, Claude Lanzmann.
(Also, just to note: I'm pretty sure that anywhere between 50-100% of these are entirely incorrect.)
BEST PICTURE
What'll win?
The Revenant
How sure am I?
60%
What should win?
Spotlight/Mad Max: Fury Road
What's been snubbed?
Carol (!), 45 Years, Inside Out, Creed
BEST DIRECTOR
Who'll win?
Alejandro González Iñárritu (The Revenant)
How sure am I?
75%
Who should win?
George Miller (MM: FR)
Who's been snubbed?
Todd Haynes (Carol), Ryan Coogler (Creed), Todd Haynes, Ridley Scott (The Martian), Todd Haynes
BEST ACTOR
Who'll win?
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
How sure am I?
100 billion percent
Who should win?
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), I suppose (weak category - plus, he was better in Macbeth)
Who's been snubbed?
Michael B. Jordan (Creed), Colin Farrell (The Lobster)
BEST ACTRESS
Who'll win?
Brie Larson (Room)
How sure am I?
85%
Who should win?
Eh, they're all pretty amazing
Who's been snubbed?
Emily Blunt (Sicario), Karidja Touré (Girlhood), Lily Tomlin (Grandma)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who'll win?
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
How sure am I?
50%
Who should win?
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)/Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Who's been snubbed?
IDRIS FUCKING ELBA (BoNN), Benicio Del Toro (Sicario), Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who'll win?
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl, though she deserves it for Ex Machina)
How sure am I?
60%
Who should win?
Even though she's in the wrong category, Rooney Mara (Carol)
Who shouldn't win?
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Who's been snubbed?
Kitana Kiki Rodriguez (Tangerine), Marion Cotillard (Macbeth)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who'll win?
Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer (Spotlight)
How sure am I?
85%
Who should win?
McCarthy & Singer (Spotlight)/Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve & Josh Cooley (Inside Out)
Who's been snubbed?
Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig (Mistress America), Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who'll win?
Adam McKay & Charles Randolph (The Big Short)
How sure am I?
70%
Who should win?
Phyllis Nagy (Carol)
Who's been snubbed?
Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
What'll win?
Son of Saul
How sure am I?
80%
What should win?
Son of Saul, probably (I haven't seen it yet)
What's been snubbed?
Force Majeure, Girlhood, Wild Tales, Taxi Tehran...
BEST ANIMATED FILM
What'll win?
Inside Out
How sure am I?
99%
What should win?
Inside Out/Anomalisa
What's been snubbed?
N/A
BEST DOCUMENTARY
What'll win?
Amy
How sure am I?
90%
What should win?
The Look of Silence
What's been snubbed?
Going Clear
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Who'll win?
Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)
How sure am I?
60%
Who should win?
Carter Burwell (Carol)
Who's been snubbed?
Rich "Disasterpeace" Vreeland (It Follows), Michael Giacchino (Inside Out)
Right, beginning to lose interest now. Only one more...
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
What'll win?
Sanjay's Super Team/Bear Story/World of Tomorrow
How sure am I?
??%
What should win?
WORLD OF TOMORROW please God let Don Hertzfeldt win an Oscar
Only four-ish hours to go...
