I posted this article to The Boar, but it got cut down and mangled in the edit, so here it is in all its uncensored glory.
The Oscars are a silly business. Everyone in Hollywood seems to pretend they don't care about this back-slapping event up until the night itself, at which point they either get worked up if they win or have a sulk if they lose. It's a fever that engulfs most of the Western hemisphere until it's all over by March, when we all return to our boring lives.
I'm a prime culprit of someone who succumbs to awards fever, simply because it's quite good fun. Last year I championed Gravity, even when most of the people I knew found it 'cool' to criticise its inaccurate science and plot. For a time I was very irritating at parties, and this year I'm supporting Boyhood in a similar way - I think it should win every award going for it, and it might just do that - it's certainly a front-runner in some important categories. But will it lose out to Birdman, the film which made acting and directing cool again? Or will the more traditional biopic The Theory of Everything take the crown? Will the Cinematography award be unjustly denied to Dick Poop? There's only one way to find out, but until the night there's no reason we can't make some predictions...
BEST ACTOR
Who will win: Michael Keaton/Eddie Redmayne
Who should win: Eddie Redmayne
It's a difficult category to be in this year. I feel particularly sorry for Steve Carell, whose brilliant performance in Foxcatcher would have had a chance if he'd rightly been nominated in the Best Supporting Actor category. But this year it's all about two guys: Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything and Michael Keaton in Birdman. In any other year Redmayne's transformative performance as Steven Hawking would all but guarantee a win - it's the kind of thing the Academy love, and reminded me of Daniel Day Lewis' winning role in My Left Foot. But they love a comeback story too, and Keaton performance, rooted in his personal history as an actor, might just have the edge. Might. Officially too close to call.
BEST ACTRESS
Who will win: Julianne Moore
Who should win: Rosamund Pike
Julianne Moore's been on a role so far, scooping up awards all over the place for her performance as a woman with Alzheimer's in Still Alice. And in many ways this feels like her year - she gave a great performance in David Cronenberg's Maps to the Stars, which won her an award at Cannes, and an Oscar for the actress is nothing if not overdue. But she's also facing some strong competition, namely Reese Witherspoon in Wild and Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything. As for who I'll be rooting for, I'm still drawn to the brilliant Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl - she's the British underdog, who won't win but should be recognised for a performance that scared the pants off me.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who will win: J.K. Simmons
Who should win: J.K. Simmons
No qualms here. Simmons has been sweeping the awards circuit and there's no reason why he won't win here - his physically ferocious music teacher in Whiplash is one of the most iconic cinematic creations in ages. I'll be using his scathing put-downs for years to come.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who will win: Patricia Arquette
Who should win: Patricia Arquette
Again, the supporting categories are on a lock this year, and that's no bad thing. Arquette hasn't been relevant in about a decade, but she's never stopped being brilliant, and in Boyhood she displayed this as the beating, bruised heart of the family. Applause, lovely speech, let's move on.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu
Who should win: Richard Linklater
In what might be the most contentious category this year we've got two very different kinds of talent going up against each other. On the one hand, you have Iñárritu's flashy and visually creative Birdman, which wouldn't have been such a drunk pleasure without its director's firm grip. On the other you have Boyhood, which feels so effortlessly naturalistic that its director's talents might be overshadowed by its more obvious accomplishments. But I'm firm supporter of Richard Linklater, whose philosophy I find so much more appealing than Iñárritu's - he has such an enduring faith in the human spirit, and treats his audience with respect rather than hostility, something which I'm sure that the Academy will appreciate. It'll be a close one, though.
BEST FILM
Who will win: Boyhood
Who should win: Boyhood
It's the big one, and it should come as no surprise that this film is the frontrunner for both the Academy and myself. Everyone I've spoken to loves this film, audiences and critics alike, and I can't see that changing any time soon. It's remarkable in its perfection as a miraculous finished product, and it's definitely the kind of thing that the Academy understand and appreciate. I don't know, maybe Selma will win just to prove that they're not all racist, but I think it's unlikely that anything will take Boyhood's rightful crown.
THE OTHER AWARDS
The major awards are usually quite limited in the scope of films that they allow, but there's more breathing room in the lesser categories. Best Original Score has some good nominees, and my favourite still stands at Alexandre Desplat's excellent and funny score for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Writing should - and likely will - go to Whiplash and Birdman for Adapted and Original Screenplay respectively, though it would be nice if Foxcatcher or Nightcrawler won at least one thing.
The Foreign Language Film award will likely go to Leviathan, certainly my favourite pick of the nominees. Editing and Cinematography should, again, go to Whiplash and Birdman, though both The Grand Budapest Hotel and the under-represented Mr. Turner are astonishing visual creations. It'll be an interesting dual between Steve Carell's fake nose in Foxcatcher and Zoe Saldana's green face in Guardians of the Galaxy for Best Makeup. And
Ultimately, the Oscars are a waste of time, but every year I always tune in (with a few drinks) to see how it all turns out. I could be wrong about every single one of my predictions, but hey, that's part of the fun, right?
